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Group C · HAI · outside top-16

Haiti

Strength
66.0
± 1.8
Attack
67.4
0–100
Defense
64.8
0–100
P(champion)
0.0%
0.0% reach final
Strength trajectory
65.3 → 65.7 · +0.4
2023-03-31 range 64.8–66.1 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.0%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · -0.1pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · -0.1pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
0.4%
R16
1.7%
Quarter
0.2%
Semi
0.0%
Final
0.0%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
Stade Sylvio Cator
Port-au-Prince · 15,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; -40,865)
Age profile
mean 26.6 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 1 J. Placide 38 yr
    Bastia · Ligue 2
    72 caps · 12 since 2024 (7.14rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.83 rtg
  • 12 A. Pierre 24 yr
    Sochaux · National 1
    9 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.87rtg)
  • 23 J. Duverger 23 yr
    —
    7 caps · 1 since 2024 (6.3rtg)
DEF Defenders · 8
  • 4 Ricardo Ade 35 yr
    LDU de Quito · Liga Pro
    64 caps · 2G · 29 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.01rtg)  |  club 1G · 7.09 rtg
  • 2 C. Arcus Top minutes 29 yr
    Angers · Ligue 1
    51 caps · 1G · 17 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.96rtg)  |  club 0G · 3A · 6.71 rtg
  • 8 M. Expérience 26 yr
    Nancy · Ligue 2
    19 caps · 14 since 2024 (0G/2A · 6.82rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 6.75 rtg
  • 13 D. Lacroix 32 yr
    Colorado Springs · USL Championship
    11 caps · 2G · 11 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.32rtg)
  • 22 J. Duverne 28 yr
    Gent · Jupiler Pro League
    13 caps · 1G · 13 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.8rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 6.65 rtg
  • 24 W. Paugain 24 yr
    Zulte Waregem · Jupiler Pro League
    3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.79rtg)  |  club 1G · 6.82 rtg
  • 5 H. Delcroix 26 yr
    FC Lugano · Super League
    3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.93rtg)  |  club 1G · 7.07 rtg
  • 3 K. Thermoncy 20 yr
    BSC Young Boys · Super League
    1 cap
MID Midfielders · 8
  • 11 L. Deedson 24 yr
    FC Dallas · Major League Soccer
    56 caps · 18G · 49 since 2024 (16G/4A · 6.92rtg)
  • 17 D. Jean-Jacques 25 yr
    Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer
    58 caps · 5G · 51 since 2024 (4G/4A · 6.97rtg)  |  club 3G · 2A · 6.95 rtg
  • 15 R. Providence 24 yr
    Almere City FC · Eerste Divisie
    30 caps · 8G · 30 since 2024 (8G/3A · 6.8rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.47 rtg
  • 14 L. Pierre 27 yr
    Vizela · Segunda Liga
    29 caps · 15 since 2024 (6.97rtg)
  • 10 J. Bellegarde 27 yr
    Wolves · Premier League
    6 caps · 6 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.92rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 6.78 rtg
  • 25 D. Simon 25 yr
    Tatran Prešov · Super Liga
  • 6 C. F. Sainte 23 yr
    —
  • 26 W. Pierre 21 yr
    Real du Cap · Ligue Haïtienne
ATT Attackers · 7
  • 9 D. Nazon Top scorer 31 yr
    Esteghlal FC · Persian Gulf Pro League
    78 caps · 47G · 20 since 2024 (12G/4A · 7.52rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A
  • 20 F. Pierrot 30 yr
    AEK Athens FC · Super League 1
    64 caps · 35G · 35 since 2024 (14G/1A · 7.04rtg)  |  club 2G · 1A · 6.59 rtg
  • 7 D. Etienne 29 yr
    Toronto FC · Major League Soccer
    43 caps · 7G · 3 since 2024 (7G/0A · 6.7rtg)  |  club 0G · 3A · 6.72 rtg
  • 21 J. Casimir 24 yr
    Auxerre · Ligue 1
    4 caps · 4 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.13rtg)  |  club 1G · 6.61 rtg
  • 19 Y. Fortuné 26 yr
    Vizela · Segunda Liga
    2 caps · 2 since 2024 (6.7rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 6.53 rtg
  • 18 W. Isidor 25 yr
    Sunderland · Premier League
     |  club 6G · 6.65 rtg
  • 16 L. Joseph 25 yr
    Ferencvarosi TC · NB I
     |  club 7G · 1A · 6.96 rtg

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
L 1–2 vs Peru
W 4–0 vs NZL
D 1–1 v Iceland
L 0–1 v TUN
W 2–0 v Nicaragua
W 1–0 v Costa Rica

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(HAI win) P(draw) Shape
2026-06-13 H vs Scotland (SCO) 15.6% 21.4%
2026-06-19 A vs Brazil (BRA) 3.6% 9.8%
2026-06-24 A vs Morocco (MAR) 8.2% 19.1%

Where the squad plays

20 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
59.7/100
vs model strength -6.3
Top-5 leagues
26%
Unrated leagues
0%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Major League Soccer USA 3 15.5% 50
Ligue 1 France 2 15.3% 80
Ligue 2 France 2 14.5% 48
Liga Pro Ecuador 1 11.2% 45
Jupiler Pro League Belgium 2 10.6% 65
Premier League England 2 10.4% 100
Super League Switzerland 1 4.9% 55
Eerste Divisie Netherlands 1 4.4% 45
NB I Hungary 1 3.8% 42
USL Championship USA 1 2.8% 40
Super Liga Slovakia 1 2.5% 40
Super League 1 Greece 1 2.3% 55
Segunda Liga Portugal 2 1.8% 45

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -6.3 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

5 verified outlets for Haiti (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.