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Group I · IRQ · outside top-16

Iraq

Strength

70.0

± 1.6

Attack

66.7

0–100

Defense

72.5

0–100

P(champion)

0.01%

0.1% reach final

Strength trajectory

69.0 → 69.9 · +0.9

2023-03-31 range 68.8–69.9 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.01%

to lift

Polymarket

0.1%

implied · -0.0pp

Kalshi

0.5%

implied · -0.5pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

2.4%

R16

5.9%

Quarter

1.4%

Semi

0.3%

Final

0.1%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Basra International Stadium

Basra · 65,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; +9,135)

Age profile

mean 26.2 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

12 Jalal Hassan Hachim 34 yr

—

75 caps · 20 since 2024 (6.95rtg)
1 Fahad Talib 31 yr

—

13 caps
22 Ahmed Basil 29 yr

—

7 caps · 4 since 2024 (7.18rtg)

DEF Defenders · 9

2 Rebin Solaka 33 yr

Port FC · Thai League 1

44 caps · 1G · 17 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.64rtg)
23 Merchas Doski 26 yr

Plzen · Czech Liga

28 caps · 20 since 2024 (6.95rtg) | club 1G · 6.95 rtg
3 Hussein Ali 23 yr

Pogon Szczecin · Ekstraklasa

25 caps · 19 since 2024 (6.64rtg) | club 2G · 6.43 rtg
6 Munaf Younus 29 yr

—

22 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.91rtg)
26 Frans Putros 32 yr

—

23 caps · 8 since 2024 (6.83rtg)
4 Zayed Tahseen 24 yr

—

18 caps · 16 since 2024 (7.11rtg)
25 Mustafa Saadoun 24 yr

—

9 caps · 8 since 2024 (6.8rtg)
5 Akam Rahman 27 yr

—

5 caps · 1G · 5 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.98rtg)

+ 1 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 7

8 Ibraheem Bayesh 25 yr

Al Riyadh · Pro League

91 caps · 10G · 53 since 2024 (7G/3A · 6.84rtg) | club 1G · 6.57 rtg
16 Amir Al Ammari Top minutes 28 yr

Cracovia Krakow · Ekstraklasa

69 caps · 3G · 51 since 2024 (2G/5A · 6.88rtg) | club 1G · 4A · 6.93 rtg
19 Kevin Yakob 25 yr

Aarhus · Superliga

28 caps · 3G · 27 since 2024 (3G/3A · 6.82rtg) | club 4G · 2A · 6.82 rtg
21 M. Farji 21 yr

Stromsgodset · Eliteserien

26 caps · 1G · 26 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.63rtg) | club 9G · 4A · 7.04 rtg
14 Zidane Iqbal 22 yr

Jong Utrecht · Eerste Divisie

23 caps · 1G · 15 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.79rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.96 rtg
20 A. Sher 23 yr

Sarpsborg 08 FF · Eliteserien

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.53rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.14 rtg
24 Z. Ismaeel 23 yr

—

ATT Attackers · 7

18 Aymen Hussein Top scorer 29 yr

—

72 caps · 25G · 24 since 2024 (6G/1A · 6.97rtg)
7 Youssef Amyn 22 yr

AEK Larnaca · 1. Division

54 caps · 5G · 50 since 2024 (5G/3A · 6.77rtg)
17 A. Jasim 21 yr

Al Najma · Pro League

19 caps · 19 since 2024 (6.8rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 6.79 rtg
9 Ali Al Hamadi 23 yr

Luton · League One

15 caps · 1G · 6 since 2024 (1G/0A · 5.77rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.34 rtg
11 A. Qasem 22 yr

Nashville SC · US Open Cup

| club 1G · 3A · 6.57037 rtg
10 Meme 25 yr

—
13 A. Y. Hashim 29 yr

—

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

DEF · additional

15 A. Yahya 30 yr

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

L 0–2 vs Venezuela

D 1–1 @ ESP

W 1–0 v Andorra

W 2–1 v Bolivia

L 0–1 v JOR

L 0–2 v ALG

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(IRQ win)	P(draw)
2026-06-16	H vs Norway (NOR)	16.6%	24.9%
2026-06-22	A vs France (FRA)	9.0%	20.5%
2026-06-26	A vs Senegal (SEN)	17.4%	29.6%

Where the squad plays

13 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

48.4/100

vs model strength -21.6

Top-5 leagues

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Eliteserien	Norway	2	24.4%	45
Ekstraklasa	Poland	2	18.7%	48
Pro League	Saudi-Arabia	2	13.7%	60
Czech Liga	Czech-Republic	1	12.6%	48
Superliga	Denmark	1	9.0%	50
US Open Cup	USA	1	8.8%	50
Thai League 1	Thailand	1	6.2%	38
Eerste Divisie	Netherlands	1	3.1%	45
League One	England	1	2.6%	45
1. Division	Cyprus	1	0.8%	38

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -21.6 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources