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Group F · JPN · outside top-16

Japan

Strength

79.4

± 1.4

Attack

78.5

0–100

Defense

78.8

0–100

P(champion)

0.97%

2.6% reach final

Strength trajectory

77.4 → 79.4 · +2.0

2023-03-31 range 77.3–79.4 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.97%

to lift

Polymarket

2.0%

implied · -1.0pp

Kalshi

1.5%

implied · -0.6pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

23.7%

R16

29.0%

Quarter

14.8%

Semi

6.7%

Final

2.6%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Saitama Stadium 2002

Saitama · 63,700 seats (WC avg 55,865; +7,835)

Age profile

mean 26.8 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

23 T. Hayakawa 26 yr

Kashima · J1 League

36 caps · 36 since 2024 (6.68rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.15 rtg
1 Z. Suzuki 23 yr

Parma · Serie A

24 caps · 17 since 2024 (6.95rtg)
12 K. Osako 26 yr

Sanfrecce Hiroshima · J1 League

13 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.68rtg)

DEF Defenders · 9

5 Y. Nagatomo 39 yr

FC Tokyo · J1 League

128 caps · 2G · 3 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.7rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 6.692307 rtg
22 T. Tomiyasu 27 yr

Ajax · Eredivisie

43 caps · 1G · 3 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.93rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.61 rtg
4 K. Itakura 28 yr

Ajax · Eredivisie

40 caps · 2G · 14 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.26rtg) | club 1G · 6.99 rtg
3 S. Taniguchi 34 yr

St. Truiden · Jupiler Pro League

41 caps · 1G · 14 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.05rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 7.1 rtg
21 H. Ito 26 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

30 caps · 1G · 13 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.3rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 6.81 rtg
2 Y. Sugawara 25 yr

Werder Bremen · Bundesliga

24 caps · 2G · 12 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.16rtg) | club 0G · 6A · 6.53 rtg
20 A. Seko 25 yr

Le Havre · Ligue 1

14 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.97rtg)
16 T. Watanabe 28 yr

Feyenoord · Eredivisie

13 caps · 9 since 2024 (7.0rtg) | club 2G · 7.12 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 7

10 R. Doan 27 yr

Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga

65 caps · 11G · 21 since 2024 (4G/3A · 7.14rtg) | club 5G · 5A · 6.82 rtg
6 W. Endo 32 yr

Liverpool · Premier League

73 caps · 4G · 14 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.03rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.73 rtg
15 D. Kamada 29 yr

Crystal Palace · Premier League

49 caps · 12G · 19 since 2024 (6G/1A · 7.2rtg)
7 A. Tanaka 27 yr

Leeds · Premier League

38 caps · 8G · 16 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.2rtg) | club 2G · 6.74 rtg
13 Keito Nakamura 25 yr

Reims · Ligue 2

27 caps · 10G · 18 since 2024 (5G/3A · 7.14rtg) | club 14G · 2A · 7.18 rtg
24 K. Sano Top minutes 25 yr

FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

16 caps · 11 since 2024 (0G/2A · 6.97rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 7.05 rtg
17 Y. Suzuki 24 yr

SC Freiburg · Bundesliga

6 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.64rtg) | club 4G · 2A · 6.77 rtg

ATT Attackers · 7

14 J. Ito 32 yr

Genk · Jupiler Pro League

70 caps · 15G · 17 since 2024 (2G/13A · 7.4rtg) | club 6G · 5A · 7.1 rtg
18 A. Ueda Top scorer 27 yr

Feyenoord · Eredivisie

39 caps · 16G · 17 since 2024 (10G/3A · 7.29rtg) | club 25G · 1A · 7.17 rtg
8 T. Kubo 24 yr

Real Sociedad · La Liga

49 caps · 7G · 16 since 2024 (4G/10A · 7.61rtg) | club 2G · 4A · 7.05 rtg
19 Koki Ogawa 28 yr

NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie

15 caps · 11G · 14 since 2024 (8G/1A · 7.08rtg) | club 8G · 3A · 6.82 rtg
11 D. Maeda 28 yr

Celtic · Premiership

29 caps · 4G · 11 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.78rtg) | club 14G · 6A · 6.77 rtg
9 K. Goto 20 yr

St. Truiden · Jupiler Pro League

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.56rtg) | club 11G · 7A · 6.79 rtg
26 K. Shiogai 20 yr

NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie

2 caps · 2 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.85rtg) | club 7G · 6.97 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

DEF · additional

25 J. Suzuki 22 yr

FC Copenhagen · 6c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 1–0 vs Iceland

W 1–0 @ ENG

W 1–0 @ SCO

W 3–0 vs Bolivia

W 2–0 vs GHA

W 3–2 vs BRA

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(JPN win)	P(draw)
2026-06-14	A vs Netherlands (NED)	28.0%	26.1%
2026-06-20	A vs Tunisia (TUN)	45.1%	30.5%
2026-06-25	H vs Sweden (SWE)	41.7%	27.0%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

72.2/100

vs model strength -7.2

Top-5 leagues

38%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Bundesliga	Germany	5	20.2%	90
J1 League	Japan	3	16.7%	55
Eredivisie	Netherlands	6	16.4%	72
Jupiler Pro League	Belgium	3	14.8%	65
Premier League	England	3	6.7%	100
Premiership	Scotland	1	5.5%	50
Ligue 1	France	1	5.1%	80
Ligue 2	France	1	4.6%	48
Superliga	Denmark	1	3.7%	50
Serie A	Italy	1	3.5%	88
La Liga	Spain	1	2.9%	95

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -7.2 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources