Agent Lab — a live forecast exhibit · Applied AI
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Group G · NZL · outside top-16

New Zealand

Strength
67.1
± 2.2
Attack
63.1
0–100
Defense
70.7
0–100
P(champion)
0.0%
0.0% reach final
Strength trajectory
67.1 → 67.4 · +0.3
2023-03-31 range 65.7–68.1 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.0%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · -0.1pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · -0.1pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
3.0%
R16
7.1%
Quarter
1.3%
Semi
0.2%
Final
0.0%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
Eden Park
Auckland · 50,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; -5,865)
Age profile
mean 27.1 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 1 M. Crocombe 32 yr
    Millwall · Championship
    20 caps · 17 since 2024 (6.299999999999999rtg)
  • 12 A. Paulsen 23 yr
    Lechia Gdansk · Ekstraklasa
    6 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.6rtg)
  • 22 M. Woud 26 yr
    Auckland · A-League
    5 caps
DEF Defenders · 9
  • 5 M. Boxall 37 yr
    Minnesota United FC · Major League Soccer
    59 caps · 1G · 14 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.7rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 7.03 rtg
  • 15 N. Pijnaker 26 yr
    Auckland · A-League
    52 caps · 4G · 33 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.7rtg)
  • 26 T. Smith 35 yr
    Braintree · FA Cup
    54 caps · 2G · 5 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.3rtg)
  • 2 T. Payne 31 yr
    Wellington Phoenix · A-League
    45 caps · 3G · 14 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.5rtg)  |  club 0G · 5A · 6.59 rtg
  • 13 L. Cacace 25 yr
    Wrexham · Championship
    35 caps · 1G · 16 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.7rtg)
  • 4 Tyler Bindon 20 yr
    Sheffield Utd · Championship
    21 caps · 3G · 17 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.6rtg)  |  club 1G · 6.92 rtg
  • 16 F. Surman 22 yr
    Portland Timbers · Major League Soccer
    15 caps · 2G · 14 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.3rtg)
  • 3 F. de Vries 31 yr
    Auckland · A-League
    17 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.7rtg)  |  club 1G · 7A · 7.32 rtg
+ 1 more in the broader pool
MID Midfielders · 9
  • 11 E. Just 25 yr
    Motherwell · Premiership
    41 caps · 7G · 20 since 2024 (6G/0A · 6.2rtg)  |  club 7G · 7A · 7.11 rtg
  • 7 M. Garbett 23 yr
    Peterborough · League One
    37 caps · 5G · 16 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.6rtg)  |  club 3G · 2A · 6.89 rtg
  • 8 M. Stamenic 23 yr
    Swansea · Championship
    36 caps · 2G · 16 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.6rtg)  |  club 3G · 2A · 6.75 rtg
  • 20 C. McCowatt 26 yr
    Silkeborg · Superliga
    28 caps · 4G · 11 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.2rtg)  |  club 11G · 5A · 7.23 rtg
  • 6 J. Bell 26 yr
    Viking · Eliteserien
    30 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.3rtg)  |  club 3G · 4A · 7.34 rtg
  • 23 R. Thomas Top minutes 31 yr
    PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie
    21 caps · 3G · 4 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.83rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 7.13 rtg
  • 10 S. Singh 26 yr
    TSC Backa Topola · Super Liga
    23 caps · 2G · 14 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.0rtg)  |  club 2G · 1A · 6.82 rtg
  • 14 A. Rufer 29 yr
    Wellington Phoenix · A-League
    22 caps · 15 since 2024 (6.3rtg)  |  club 2G · 1A · 7.18 rtg
+ 1 more in the broader pool
ATT Attackers · 5
  • 9 C. Wood Top scorer 34 yr
    Nottingham Forest · Premier League
    84 caps · 45G · 14 since 2024 (11G/0A · 6.9rtg)  |  club 3G · 6.61 rtg
  • 17 K. Barbarouses 35 yr
    Western Sydney Wanderers · A-League
    71 caps · 9G · 18 since 2024 (5G/0A · 6.5rtg)  |  club 4G · 1A · 6.6 rtg
  • 18 B. Waine 24 yr
    Port Vale · League One
    29 caps · 8G · 17 since 2024 (7G/0A · 6.73rtg)  |  club 3G · 1A · 6.65 rtg
  • 19 B. Old 23 yr
    Saint Etienne · Ligue 2
    20 caps · 2G · 18 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.0rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.65 rtg
  • 21 J. Randall 23 yr
    Auckland · A-League
    8 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.9rtg)  |  club 9G · 8A · 7.18 rtg
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
DEF · additional
  • 24 C. Elliot 26 yr
    Auckland · 7c
MID · additional
  • 25 L. Bayliss 23 yr
    Newcastle Jets

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
L 0–1 @ ENG
L 0–4 @ HAI
W 4–1 vs Chile
L 0–2 vs Finland
L 0–2 v ECU
L 1–2 v COL

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(NZL win) P(draw) Shape
2026-06-15 A vs Iran (IRN) 15.3% 28.1%
2026-06-21 H vs Egypt (EGY) 17.0% 31.4%
2026-06-26 H vs Belgium (BEL) 8.2% 18.6%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
49.2/100
vs model strength -17.9
Top-5 leagues
2%
Unrated leagues
0%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
A-League Australia 9 32.7% 42
Championship England 4 15.2% 55
Major League Soccer USA 2 12.7% 50
League One England 2 6.8% 45
Premiership Scotland 1 5.6% 50
Eliteserien Norway 1 5.3% 45
Superliga Denmark 1 5.2% 50
Ekstraklasa Poland 1 4.5% 48
Eredivisie Netherlands 1 4.5% 72
Ligue 2 France 1 3.9% 48
Premier League England 1 1.9% 100
Super Liga Serbia 1 1.8% 45
FA Cup England 1 0.0% 100

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -17.9 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for New Zealand (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.