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Group D · PAR · outside top-16

Paraguay

Strength

76.0

± 1.9

Attack

72.8

0–100

Defense

77.9

0–100

P(champion)

0.43%

1.4% reach final

Strength trajectory

75.6 → 76.5 · +0.9

2023-03-31 range 74.9–76.9 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.43%

to lift

Polymarket

0.1%

implied · +0.3pp

Kalshi

0.1%

implied · +0.3pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

20.7%

R16

31.3%

Quarter

11.5%

Semi

4.0%

Final

1.4%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Asunción · 42,354 seats (WC avg 55,865; -13,511)

Age profile

mean 28.0 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

12 O. Gill 25 yr

San Lorenzo · Liga Profesional Argentina

6 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.200000000000001rtg)
22 G. Olveira 32 yr

Olimpia · Division Profesional - Apertura

1 cap
1 R. Fernandez 37 yr

—

DEF Defenders · 8

15 G. Gómez 32 yr

Palmeiras · Serie A

89 caps · 4G · 23 since 2024 (4G/0A · 5.9rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 7.23 rtg
6 J. Alonso 32 yr

Atletico-MG · Serie A

71 caps · 3G · 21 since 2024 (1G/1A · 5.200000000000001rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 7.02 rtg
5 F. Balbuena 34 yr

Gremio · Serie A

47 caps · 2G · 15 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.89rtg) | club 1G · 7.13 rtg
3 O. Alderete Top minutes 29 yr

Sunderland · Premier League

36 caps · 3G · 24 since 2024 (3G/0A · 5.9rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.83 rtg
4 J. Cáceres 25 yr

Dynamo · Premier League

17 caps · 16 since 2024 (0G/3A · 6.2rtg) | club 1G · 6A · 7.02 rtg
2 G. Velázquez 34 yr

Cerro Porteno · Division Profesional - Apertura

13 caps · 1G · 13 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.2rtg) | club 1G · 7.23 rtg
26 A. Maidana 20 yr

Club Guarani · Division Profesional - Apertura

1 cap | club 3G · 7.0 rtg
13 J. Canale 29 yr

Lanus · Liga Profesional Argentina

1 cap | club 4G · 7.35 rtg

MID Midfielders · 9

10 M. Almirón Top scorer 31 yr

Atlanta United FC · Major League Soccer

76 caps · 9G · 27 since 2024 (2G/2A · 6.3rtg) | club 6G · 4A · 7.22 rtg
14 A. Cubas 29 yr

Vancouver Whitecaps · Major League Soccer

33 caps · 19 since 2024 (6.9rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.99 rtg
7 R. Sosa 26 yr

Palmeiras · Serie A

29 caps · 1G · 27 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.7rtg) | club 3G · 3A · 6.89 rtg
8 D. Gómez 22 yr

Brighton · Premier League

24 caps · 2G · 20 since 2024 (2G/2A · 6.5rtg) | club 5G · 1A · 6.74 rtg
16 D. Bobadilla 24 yr

Sao Paulo · Serie A

21 caps · 1G · 21 since 2024 (1G/1A · 5.5rtg) | club 4G · 2A · 7.04 rtg
23 M. Galarza 23 yr

Talleres Cordoba · Liga Profesional Argentina

14 caps · 2G · 11 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.86rtg)
20 B. Ojeda 25 yr

Real Salt Lake · Major League Soccer

16 caps · 8 since 2024 (6.62rtg) | club 2G · 6.96 rtg
11 Maurício 24 yr

Palmeiras · Serie A

3 caps · 1G · 3 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.5rtg) | club 3G · 7A · 6.92 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 6

9 A. Sanabria 29 yr

Cremonese · Serie A

48 caps · 7G · 20 since 2024 (5G/1A · 6.5rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 6.5 rtg
17 A. Romero 30 yr

Al Ain · Pro League

34 caps · 5G · 19 since 2024 (5G/0A · 6.3rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 7.06 rtg
19 J. Enciso 21 yr

Strasbourg · Ligue 1

32 caps · 4G · 21 since 2024 (4G/4A · 7.200000000000001rtg) | club 3G · 6A · 7.06 rtg
21 G. Ávalos 35 yr

Independiente · Copa Argentina

22 caps · 2G · 12 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.68rtg) | club 16G · 3A · 7.14 rtg
18 A. Arce 30 yr

LDU de Quito · Liga Pro

15 caps · 1G · 15 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.2rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 6.97 rtg
25 I. Pitta 26 yr

RB Bragantino · Serie A

5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.62rtg) | club 7G · 2A · 6.96 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

24 G. Caballero 24 yr

Nacional Asuncion · 2c/1g

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

L 1–4 @ USA

W 4–0 vs Nicaragua

L 1–2 v MAR

W 1–0 @ Greece

W 2–1 v MEX

L 1–2 @ USA

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(PAR win)	P(draw)
2026-06-12	A vs United States (USA)	29.5%	27.9%
2026-06-19	A vs Turkey (TUR)	33.4%	28.7%
2026-06-25	H vs Australia (AUS)	32.2%	32.5%

Where the squad plays

25 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

64.6/100

vs model strength -11.4

Top-5 leagues

18%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Serie A	Brazil	7	26.0%	70
Major League Soccer	USA	3	17.3%	50
Liga Profesional Argentina	Argentina	3	11.7%	62
Premier League	England	2	11.6%	100
Division Profesional - Apertura	Paraguay	4	11.0%	45
Copa Argentina	Argentina	1	6.1%	62
Premier League	Russia	1	4.9%	55
Ligue 1	France	1	4.4%	80
Pro League	United-Arab-Emirates	1	2.6%	40
Liga Pro	Ecuador	1	2.3%	45
Serie A	Italy	1	2.2%	88

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -11.4 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources