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Group F · TUN · outside top-16

Tunisia

Strength

74.8

± 1.6

Attack

71.2

0–100

Defense

77.2

0–100

P(champion)

0.25%

0.7% reach final

Strength trajectory

75.8 → 75.1 · -0.7

2023-03-31 range 74.5–76.1 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.25%

to lift

Polymarket

0.1%

implied · +0.2pp

Kalshi

0.1%

implied · +0.2pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

10.2%

R16

15.5%

Quarter

6.1%

Semi

2.2%

Final

0.7%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi

Radès · 60,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; +4,135)

Age profile

mean 25.7 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

16 A. Dahmen 28 yr

—

26 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.52rtg)
1 C. Abdelmouhib 24 yr

—

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.5rtg)
22 S. Ben Hsan 29 yr

—

2 caps

DEF Defenders · 9

3 M. Talbi 27 yr

Lorient · Ligue 1

52 caps · 3G · 16 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.550000000000001rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.9 rtg
2 A. Abdi 32 yr

Nice · Ligue 1

41 caps · 4G · 17 since 2024 (3G/2A · 7.02rtg) | club 3G · 6.62 rtg
6 D. Bronn 30 yr

Servette FC · Super League

40 caps · 2G · 8 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.87rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.67 rtg
20 Y. Valery 26 yr

Sheffield Wednesday · Championship

15 caps · 8 since 2024 (6.41rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.64 rtg
21 A. Ben Hmida 30 yr

—

11 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.3rtg)
4 O. Rekik 24 yr

—

7 caps · 4 since 2024 (7.449999999999999rtg)
23 M. Neffati 21 yr

IFK Norrkoping · Allsvenskan

2 caps | club 1G · 4A · 7.02 rtg
5 A. Arous 21 yr

Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig

2 caps · 2 since 2024 (7.299999999999999rtg) | club 1G · 6.82 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 8

17 E. Skhiri Top scorer 30 yr

Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga

69 caps · 4G · 15 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.299999999999999rtg)
25 A. Ben Slimane 24 yr

Norwich · Championship

37 caps · 4G · 7 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.362222222222221rtg) | club 5G · 2A · 6.75 rtg
10 H. Mejbri 22 yr

Burnley · Premier League

44 caps · 11 since 2024 (0G/2A · 7.01rtg) | club 1G · 4A · 6.72 rtg
7 E. Achouri 26 yr

FC Copenhagen · Superliga

26 caps · 3G · 11 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.7rtg) | club 3G · 4A · 6.9 rtg
12 M. Ben Ouanes 31 yr

Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig

13 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.7rtg) | club 2G · 6A · 6.78 rtg
15 H. Mahmoud 25 yr

FC Lugano · Super League

7 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.072727272727272rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 6.74 rtg
14 K. Ayari 20 yr

—

5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.583116883116883rtg)
13 R. Khedira Top minutes 31 yr

Union Berlin · Bundesliga

3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.7rtg) | club 5G · 1A · 6.67 rtg

ATT Attackers · 6

19 F. Chaouat 29 yr

—

17 caps · 3G · 10 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.523423423423424rtg)
9 H. Mastouri 28 yr

Dinamo Makhachkala · Premier League

13 caps · 2G · 11 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.0rtg) | club 2G · 6.56 rtg
11 Ismaël Gharbi 21 yr

FC Augsburg · Bundesliga

11 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.300000000000001rtg)
26 S. Tounekti 23 yr

Celtic · League Cup

10 caps · 9 since 2024 (6.7rtg) | club 2G · 5A · 7.042857 rtg
8 E. Saad 26 yr

Hannover 96 · 2. Bundesliga

10 caps · 8 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.57rtg) | club 0G · 3A · 6.9 rtg
18 R. Elloumi 18 yr

Vancouver Whitecaps · Major League Soccer

5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.4361702127659575rtg) | club 2G · 7.01 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

DEF · additional

24 R. Chikhaoui 21 yr

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

L 0–5 @ BEL

L 0–1 @ AUT

D 0–0 @ CAN

W 1–0 v HAI

L 1–1 v Mali

D 1–1 v Tanzania

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(TUN win)	P(draw)
2026-06-14	A vs Sweden (SWE)	29.1%	29.6%
2026-06-20	H vs Japan (JPN)	24.3%	30.5%
2026-06-25	H vs Netherlands (NED)	18.2%	25.8%

Where the squad plays

18 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

65.5/100

vs model strength -9.3

Top-5 leagues

35%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Bundesliga	Germany	3	16.3%	90
Süper Lig	Turkey	2	14.7%	60
Ligue 1	France	2	14.2%	80
Championship	England	2	12.2%	55
Super League	Switzerland	2	10.2%	55
Allsvenskan	Sweden	1	8.9%	45
League Cup	Scotland	1	6.0%	50
Superliga	Denmark	1	5.2%	50
Premier League	England	1	4.7%	100
Premier League	Russia	1	4.2%	55
2. Bundesliga	Germany	1	2.7%	52
Major League Soccer	USA	1	0.9%	50

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -9.3 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources