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Group D · USA · outside top-16

United States

Strength

76.1

± 1.4

Attack

75.5

0–100

Defense

75.5

0–100

P(champion)

0.6%

1.8% reach final

Strength trajectory

76.7 → 75.7 · -1.0

2023-03-31 range 75.7–77.3 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.6%

to lift

Polymarket

1.7%

implied · -1.1pp

Kalshi

3.1%

implied · -2.5pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

33.5%

R16

37.8%

Quarter

14.6%

Semi

5.0%

Final

1.8%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

AT&T Stadium

Arlington · 80,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; +24,135)

Age profile

mean 26.0 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 M. Turner 31 yr

New England Revolution · Major League Soccer

54 caps · 15 since 2024 (6.92rtg)
24 M. Freese 27 yr

New York City FC · Major League Soccer

13 caps · 13 since 2024 (6.633333333333332rtg)
25 C. Brady 21 yr

Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer

1 cap · 1 since 2024 (6.3rtg)

DEF Defenders · 8

13 T. Ream 38 yr

Charlotte · Major League Soccer

84 caps · 1G · 26 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.950000000000001rtg)
5 A. Robinson 28 yr

Fulham · Premier League

56 caps · 5G · 15 since 2024 (1G/3A · 7.043478260869565rtg) | club 1G · 6.83 rtg
12 M. Robinson 28 yr

FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer

41 caps · 3G · 13 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.3rtg) | club 1G · 7.09 rtg
3 C. Richards Top minutes 25 yr

Crystal Palace · Premier League

37 caps · 2G · 21 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.9rtg) | club 1G · 6.9 rtg
22 M. McKenzie 26 yr

Toulouse · Ligue 1

30 caps · 17 since 2024 (6.53013698630137rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 6.81 rtg
23 J. Scally 23 yr

Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga

27 caps · 18 since 2024 (6.388059701492537rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 6.63 rtg
16 A. Freeman 21 yr

Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer

16 caps · 2G · 16 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.85rtg) | club 6G · 3A · 7.32 rtg
6 A. Trusty 27 yr

Celtic · League Cup

9 caps · 7 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.571052631578947rtg)

MID Midfielders · 10

10 C. Pulisic Top scorer 27 yr

AC Milan · Serie A

84 caps · 31G · 22 since 2024 (6G/5A · 7.261842105263158rtg) | club 8G · 4A · 6.99 rtg
8 W. McKennie 27 yr

Juventus · Serie A

68 caps · 12G · 17 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.88904761904762rtg) | club 5G · 5A · 6.87 rtg
11 B. Aaronson 25 yr

Leeds · Premier League

58 caps · 9G · 18 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.7rtg) | club 4G · 5A · 6.76 rtg
7 G. Reyna 23 yr

Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga

40 caps · 10G · 14 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.026666666666667rtg) | club 1G · 6.78 rtg
4 T. Adams 27 yr

Bournemouth · Premier League

54 caps · 3G · 15 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.854166666666667rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.85 rtg
15 C. Roldan 30 yr

Seattle Sounders · Major League Soccer

50 caps · 11 since 2024 (0G/2A · 6.280597014925373rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 7.52 rtg
2 S. Dest 25 yr

PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie

40 caps · 4G · 8 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.571428571428571rtg) | club 1G · 5A · 7.04 rtg
17 M. Tillman 23 yr

Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga

32 caps · 3G · 22 since 2024 (3G/5A · 7.1423645320197044rtg) | club 6G · 6.92 rtg

+ 2 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 5

9 R. Pepi 22 yr

PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie

39 caps · 13G · 16 since 2024 (3G/3A · 6.75rtg) | club 16G · 1A · 7.04 rtg
21 T. Weah 25 yr

Marseille · Ligue 1

51 caps · 7G · 16 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.48936170212766rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.76 rtg
20 F. Balogun 24 yr

Monaco · Ligue 1

27 caps · 11G · 19 since 2024 (8G/1A · 7.83419689119171rtg) | club 13G · 4A · 6.77 rtg
19 H. Wright 27 yr

Coventry · Championship

17 caps · 7G · 8 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.93rtg) | club 17G · 1A · 6.84 rtg
26 A. Zendejas 28 yr

Club America · Liga MX

11 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.57rtg) | club 12G · 7A · 7.31 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

18 M. Arfsten 24 yr

Columbus Crew · 20c
14 S. Berhalter 24 yr

Vancouver Whitecaps · 13c/1g

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 4–1 vs PAR

L 1–2 vs GER

W 3–2 vs SEN

L 0–2 vs POR

L 2–5 vs BEL

W 5–1 vs URU

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(USA win)	P(draw)
2026-06-12	H vs Paraguay (PAR)	42.6%	27.9%
2026-06-19	H vs Australia (AUS)	41.5%	26.9%
2026-06-25	H vs Turkey (TUR)	42.8%	23.8%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

68.6/100

vs model strength -7.5

Top-5 leagues

42%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Major League Soccer	USA	9	39.1%	50
Premier League	England	4	14.6%	100
Ligue 1	France	3	11.8%	80
Bundesliga	Germany	3	8.2%	90
Serie A	Italy	2	7.6%	88
Eredivisie	Netherlands	2	6.2%	72
League Cup	Scotland	1	4.4%	50
Championship	England	1	4.4%	55
Liga MX	Mexico	1	3.6%	50

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -7.5 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources