Group A · Matchday 1 · 2026-06-11
South Korea vs Czech Republic
Zapopan, Mexico · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–0
13.8%
35.8%
KOR win
28.8%
Draw
35.3%
CZE win
Top scorelines
- 0–0 13.8%
- 1–0 12.5%
- 0–1 12.4%
- 1–1 11.1%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — KOR
GF / GA last 10: 18 / 12
Last 5 — CZE
GF / GA last 10: 18 / 13
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2016-06-05 Czech Republic 1–2 South Korea
- 2001-08-15 Czech Republic 5–0 South Korea
- 1998-05-27 South Korea 2–2 Czech Republic
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
13.8
12.4
6.6
2.8
1.0
0.3
0.1
1
12.5
11.1
6.0
2.5
0.9
0.3
0.1
2
6.7
6.0
3.2
1.3
0.5
0.2
0.0
3
2.8
2.5
1.4
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
1.0
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = KOR goals; columns = CZE goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.1
KOR
1.09
CZE
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.