Section 02 · Fixtures
Group stage,
match by match
Every group-stage fixture with the model's pre-match W/D/L probabilities and the shape of its outcome distribution. The sparkline shows P(home goals − away goals) — blue bars are away-team wins, the centre is a draw, red is the home side. Tap a row for the full distribution and pre-match context.
| Date | MD | Group | Match | P(H) | P(D) | P(A) | Shape | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | 1 | A | Mexico vs South Africa (MEX–RSA) | 58.0% | 25.0% | 16.9% |
MEX edge
blowout 18%shock 17%
|
Mexico City, Mexico |
| 2026-06-11 | 1 | A | South Korea vs Czech Republic (KOR–CZE) | 35.9% | 28.8% | 35.3% |
Toss-up
|
Zapopan, Mexico |
| 2026-06-12 | 2 | B | Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina (CAN–BIH) | 53.2% | 24.1% | 22.6% |
CAN edge
blowout 18%shock 23%
|
Toronto, Canada |
| 2026-06-12 | 2 | D | United States vs Paraguay (USA–PAR) | 39.7% | 29.0% | 31.2% |
Toss-up
|
Inglewood, United States |
| 2026-06-13 | 3 | D | Australia vs Turkey (AUS–TUR) | 35.4% | 27.5% | 37.1% |
Toss-up
|
Vancouver, Canada |
| 2026-06-13 | 3 | C | Brazil vs Morocco (BRA–MAR) | 46.6% | 31.8% | 21.6% |
BRA lean
|
East Rutherford, United States |
| 2026-06-13 | 3 | C | Haiti vs Scotland (HAI–SCO) | 15.3% | 21.3% | 63.1% |
SCO strong
blowout 24%shock 15%
|
Foxborough, United States |
| 2026-06-13 | 3 | B | Qatar vs Switzerland (QAT–SUI) | 12.2% | 18.4% | 68.8% |
SUI strong
blowout 30%
|
Santa Clara, United States |
| 2026-06-14 | 4 | E | Germany vs Curaçao (GER–CUW) | 82.0% | 9.8% | 4.1% |
GER heavy
blowout 50%
|
Houston, United States |
| 2026-06-14 | 4 | E | Ivory Coast vs Ecuador (CIV–ECU) | 24.1% | 32.9% | 43.0% |
Toss-up
|
Philadelphia, United States |
| 2026-06-14 | 4 | F | Netherlands vs Japan (NED–JPN) | 46.4% | 26.0% | 27.5% |
NED lean
blowout 15%
|
Arlington, United States |
| 2026-06-14 | 4 | F | Sweden vs Tunisia (SWE–TUN) | 40.7% | 29.9% | 29.4% |
Toss-up
|
Guadalupe, Mexico |
| 2026-06-15 | 5 | G | Belgium vs Egypt (BEL–EGY) | 52.8% | 27.1% | 20.1% |
BEL edge
blowout 15%shock 20%
|
Seattle, United States |
| 2026-06-15 | 5 | G | Iran vs New Zealand (IRN–NZL) | 55.6% | 28.5% | 15.9% |
IRN edge
shock 16%
|
Inglewood, United States |
| 2026-06-15 | 5 | H | Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay (KSA–URU) | 12.8% | 26.6% | 60.5% |
URU strong
blowout 17%
|
Miami Gardens, United States |
| 2026-06-15 | 5 | H | Spain vs Cape Verde (ESP–CPV) | 78.2% | 14.9% | 5.7% |
ESP heavy
blowout 38%
|
Atlanta, United States |
| 2026-06-16 | 6 | J | Argentina vs Algeria (ARG–ALG) | 64.7% | 21.9% | 13.1% |
ARG strong
blowout 24%
|
Kansas City, United States |
| 2026-06-16 | 6 | J | Austria vs Jordan (AUT–JOR) | 55.7% | 25.0% | 19.3% |
AUT edge
blowout 18%shock 19%
|
Santa Clara, United States |
| 2026-06-16 | 6 | I | France vs Senegal (FRA–SEN) | 51.2% | 28.3% | 20.4% |
FRA edge
shock 20%
|
East Rutherford, United States |
| 2026-06-16 | 6 | I | Iraq vs Norway (IRQ–NOR) | 16.3% | 24.6% | 58.9% |
NOR edge
blowout 19%shock 16%
|
Foxborough, United States |
| 2026-06-17 | 7 | L | England vs Croatia (ENG–CRO) | 48.0% | 28.8% | 23.2% |
ENG lean
|
Arlington, United States |
| 2026-06-17 | 7 | L | Ghana vs Panama (GHA–PAN) | 40.4% | 28.6% | 31.0% |
Toss-up
|
Toronto, Canada |
| 2026-06-17 | 7 | K | Portugal vs DR Congo (POR–COD) | 65.7% | 22.2% | 11.9% |
POR strong
blowout 23%
|
Houston, United States |
| 2026-06-17 | 7 | K | Uzbekistan vs Colombia (UZB–COL) | 14.2% | 26.2% | 59.5% |
COL edge
blowout 17%
|
Mexico City, Mexico |
| 2026-06-18 | 8 | B | Canada vs Qatar (CAN–QAT) | 63.1% | 19.9% | 16.6% |
CAN strong
blowout 26%shock 17%
|
Vancouver, Canada |
| 2026-06-18 | 8 | A | Czech Republic vs South Africa (CZE–RSA) | 45.6% | 29.1% | 25.3% |
CZE lean
|
Atlanta, United States |
| 2026-06-18 | 8 | A | Mexico vs South Korea (MEX–KOR) | 47.6% | 26.9% | 25.4% |
MEX lean
|
Zapopan, Mexico |
| 2026-06-18 | 8 | B | Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina (SUI–BIH) | 59.6% | 23.1% | 17.1% |
SUI edge
blowout 21%shock 17%
|
Inglewood, United States |
| 2026-06-19 | 9 | C | Brazil vs Haiti (BRA–HAI) | 83.1% | 9.3% | 3.4% |
BRA heavy
blowout 51%
|
Philadelphia, United States |
| 2026-06-19 | 9 | C | Scotland vs Morocco (SCO–MAR) | 21.3% | 31.1% | 47.6% |
MAR lean
|
Foxborough, United States |
| 2026-06-19 | 9 | D | Turkey vs Paraguay (TUR–PAR) | 36.3% | 29.4% | 34.3% |
Toss-up
|
Santa Clara, United States |
| 2026-06-19 | 9 | D | United States vs Australia (USA–AUS) | 40.7% | 27.2% | 32.1% |
Toss-up
|
Seattle, United States |
| 2026-06-20 | 10 | E | Ecuador vs Curaçao (ECU–CUW) | 73.1% | 19.3% | 7.2% |
ECU strong
blowout 29%
|
Kansas City, United States |
| 2026-06-20 | 10 | E | Germany vs Ivory Coast (GER–CIV) | 56.9% | 23.6% | 19.4% |
GER edge
blowout 20%shock 19%
|
Toronto, Canada |
| 2026-06-20 | 10 | F | Netherlands vs Sweden (NED–SWE) | 52.9% | 23.4% | 23.6% |
NED edge
blowout 19%shock 24%
|
Houston, United States |
| 2026-06-20 | 10 | F | Tunisia vs Japan (TUN–JPN) | 24.9% | 31.0% | 44.2% |
Toss-up
|
Guadalupe, Mexico |
| 2026-06-21 | 11 | G | Belgium vs Iran (BEL–IRN) | 51.2% | 26.1% | 22.6% |
BEL edge
blowout 16%shock 23%
|
Inglewood, United States |
| 2026-06-21 | 11 | G | New Zealand vs Egypt (NZL–EGY) | 17.4% | 31.6% | 50.9% |
EGY edge
shock 17%
|
Vancouver, Canada |
| 2026-06-21 | 11 | H | Spain vs Saudi Arabia (ESP–KSA) | 75.5% | 17.0% | 6.8% |
ESP heavy
blowout 34%
|
Atlanta, United States |
| 2026-06-21 | 11 | H | Uruguay vs Cape Verde (URU–CPV) | 64.2% | 24.4% | 11.2% |
URU strong
blowout 20%
|
Miami Gardens, United States |
| 2026-06-22 | 12 | J | Argentina vs Austria (ARG–AUT) | 59.4% | 24.9% | 15.6% |
ARG edge
blowout 19%shock 16%
|
Arlington, United States |
| 2026-06-22 | 12 | I | France vs Iraq (FRA–IRQ) | 70.9% | 20.1% | 8.6% |
FRA strong
blowout 28%
|
Philadelphia, United States |
| 2026-06-22 | 12 | J | Jordan vs Algeria (JOR–ALG) | 22.6% | 25.0% | 52.3% |
ALG edge
blowout 17%shock 23%
|
Santa Clara, United States |
| 2026-06-22 | 12 | I | Norway vs Senegal (NOR–SEN) | 37.3% | 28.9% | 33.7% |
Toss-up
|
East Rutherford, United States |
| 2026-06-23 | 13 | K | Colombia vs DR Congo (COL–COD) | 61.1% | 25.3% | 13.5% |
COL strong
blowout 19%
|
Zapopan, Mexico |
| 2026-06-23 | 13 | L | England vs Ghana (ENG–GHA) | 68.9% | 21.1% | 9.7% |
ENG strong
blowout 26%
|
Foxborough, United States |
| 2026-06-23 | 13 | L | Panama vs Croatia (PAN–CRO) | 13.9% | 21.8% | 64.1% |
CRO strong
blowout 24%
|
Toronto, Canada |
| 2026-06-23 | 13 | K | Portugal vs Uzbekistan (POR–UZB) | 64.1% | 23.1% | 12.6% |
POR strong
blowout 22%
|
Houston, United States |
| 2026-06-24 | 14 | B | Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar (BIH–QAT) | 45.2% | 25.7% | 29.0% |
BIH lean
blowout 15%
|
Seattle, United States |
| 2026-06-24 | 14 | B | Canada vs Switzerland (CAN–SUI) | 29.9% | 25.2% | 44.8% |
Toss-up
blowout 16%
|
Vancouver, Canada |
| 2026-06-24 | 14 | A | Mexico vs Czech Republic (MEX–CZE) | 48.7% | 25.8% | 25.4% |
MEX lean
blowout 16%
|
Mexico City, Mexico |
| 2026-06-24 | 14 | C | Morocco vs Haiti (MAR–HAI) | 72.7% | 18.9% | 7.9% |
MAR strong
blowout 30%
|
Atlanta, United States |
| 2026-06-24 | 14 | C | Scotland vs Brazil (SCO–BRA) | 12.4% | 21.7% | 65.6% |
BRA strong
blowout 24%
|
Miami Gardens, United States |
| 2026-06-24 | 14 | A | South Africa vs South Korea (RSA–KOR) | 24.8% | 30.2% | 45.0% |
KOR lean
|
Guadalupe, Mexico |
| 2026-06-25 | 15 | E | Curaçao vs Ivory Coast (CUW–CIV) | 11.6% | 22.5% | 65.7% |
CIV strong
blowout 23%
|
Philadelphia, United States |
| 2026-06-25 | 15 | E | Ecuador vs Germany (ECU–GER) | 28.1% | 28.0% | 43.9% |
Toss-up
|
East Rutherford, United States |
| 2026-06-25 | 15 | F | Japan vs Sweden (JPN–SWE) | 41.3% | 27.1% | 31.6% |
Toss-up
|
Arlington, United States |
| 2026-06-25 | 15 | D | Paraguay vs Australia (PAR–AUS) | 33.3% | 33.1% | 33.6% |
Toss-up
|
Santa Clara, United States |
| 2026-06-25 | 15 | F | Tunisia vs Netherlands (TUN–NED) | 18.4% | 26.1% | 55.4% |
NED edge
blowout 17%shock 18%
|
Kansas City, United States |
| 2026-06-25 | 15 | D | United States vs Turkey (USA–TUR) | 41.6% | 24.1% | 34.2% |
Toss-up
blowout 17%
|
Inglewood, United States |
| 2026-06-26 | 16 | H | Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia (CPV–KSA) | 30.5% | 33.3% | 36.2% |
Toss-up
|
Houston, United States |
| 2026-06-26 | 16 | G | Egypt vs Iran (EGY–IRN) | 30.9% | 32.9% | 36.2% |
Toss-up
|
Seattle, United States |
| 2026-06-26 | 16 | G | New Zealand vs Belgium (NZL–BEL) | 8.6% | 19.0% | 71.9% |
BEL strong
blowout 30%
|
Vancouver, Canada |
| 2026-06-26 | 16 | I | Norway vs France (NOR–FRA) | 22.3% | 25.2% | 52.4% |
FRA edge
blowout 17%shock 22%
|
Foxborough, United States |
| 2026-06-26 | 16 | I | Senegal vs Iraq (SEN–IRQ) | 53.5% | 29.2% | 17.2% |
SEN edge
shock 17%
|
Toronto, Canada |
| 2026-06-26 | 16 | H | Uruguay vs Spain (URU–ESP) | 22.8% | 28.3% | 48.9% |
ESP lean
|
Zapopan, Mexico |
| 2026-06-27 | 17 | J | Algeria vs Austria (ALG–AUT) | 32.5% | 26.4% | 41.1% |
Toss-up
|
Kansas City, United States |
| 2026-06-27 | 17 | K | Colombia vs Portugal (COL–POR) | 33.0% | 28.3% | 38.7% |
Toss-up
|
Miami Gardens, United States |
| 2026-06-27 | 17 | L | Croatia vs Ghana (CRO–GHA) | 58.1% | 25.0% | 16.8% |
CRO edge
blowout 18%shock 17%
|
Philadelphia, United States |
| 2026-06-27 | 17 | K | DR Congo vs Uzbekistan (COD–UZB) | 31.8% | 34.1% | 34.1% |
Toss-up
|
Atlanta, United States |
| 2026-06-27 | 17 | J | Jordan vs Argentina (JOR–ARG) | 6.7% | 17.0% | 75.6% |
ARG heavy
blowout 34%
|
Arlington, United States |
| 2026-06-27 | 17 | L | Panama vs England (PAN–ENG) | 7.6% | 17.5% | 74.2% |
ENG strong
blowout 32%
|
East Rutherford, United States |
72 group-stage fixtures · 2026-06-11 to 2026-06-27. The Shape column is the model's goal-difference distribution per fixture, binned to ≤−3 / −2 / −1 / 0 / +1 / +2 / ≥+3. Tall centre bar = grinding draw; right-skew = home favourite; fat outer bars = blowout potential. A blowout 18% badge fires when P(margin ≥ 3) is ≥ 15 %; a shock 21% badge fires when the underdog has a credible win path.