Group L · Matchday 7 · 2026-06-17
England vs Croatia
Arlington, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
15.7%
48.0%
ENG win
28.8%
Draw
23.2%
CRO win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 15.7%
- 0–0 15.1%
- 1–1 10.5%
- 0–1 10.1%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — ENG
GF / GA last 10: 22 / 5
Last 5 — CRO
GF / GA last 10: 29 / 8
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2021-06-13 England 1–0 Croatia
- 2018-11-18 England 2–1 Croatia
- 2018-10-12 Croatia 0–0 England
- 2018-07-11 Croatia 2–1 England
- 2009-09-09 England 5–1 Croatia
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
15.1
10.1
4.1
1.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
15.7
10.5
4.2
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
2
9.9
6.6
2.7
0.8
0.2
0.1
0.0
3
4.8
3.2
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
2.0
1.4
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = ENG goals; columns = CRO goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.32
ENG
0.78
CRO
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.