Who lifts the
trophy in July?
Twenty-thousand Monte Carlo tournaments, each one a fresh 48-team draw run from group stage through the final. The model — a penalized-MLE Poisson attack/defense fit on 47 570 international matches through 2026-06-02 — picks favorites, but the spread of the top eight is unusually flat.
Model and markets, side by side
| Team | Model | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 13.3% | 16.6% | 16.2% |
| Brazil | 13.1% | 9.0% | 8.7% |
| Argentina | 11.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% |
| England | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.5% |
| France | 6.9% | 16.3% | 15.9% |
| Portugal | 6.7% | 10.1% | 9.0% |
| Germany | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% |
| Colombia | 4.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Belgium | 4.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% |
| Netherlands | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% |
| Uruguay | 2.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Morocco | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Croatia | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Ecuador | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Switzerland | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Mexico | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Japan | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Norway | 0.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% |
| Senegal | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| Iran | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| United States | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| Austria | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Australia | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Sweden | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Turkey | 0.4% | — | 0.7% |
| Paraguay | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Ivory Coast | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Canada | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Egypt | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| South Korea | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Czech Republic | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Scotland | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Algeria | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tunisia | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Uzbekistan | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| DR Congo | 0.1% | — | 0.5% |
| South Africa | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.0% | — | 0.5% |
| Panama | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ghana | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jordan | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Iraq | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Cape Verde | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Curaçao | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Haiti | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| New Zealand | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Qatar | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Field of 48 · ranked by champion probability
Top 8 ≈ 70% of title mass| # | Team | Champion | Final | Semi | Quarter | R16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Spain | 13.3% | 22.0% | 34.6% | 47.6% | 69.9% |
| 02 | Brazil | 13.1% | 22.1% | 33.4% | 50.1% | 70.6% |
| 03 | Argentina | 11.8% | 19.8% | 31.5% | 45.8% | 63.0% |
| 04 | England | 9.4% | 16.9% | 27.6% | 45.3% | 67.0% |
| 05 | France | 6.9% | 13.1% | 23.4% | 38.6% | 63.4% |
| 06 | Portugal | 6.7% | 12.4% | 23.0% | 39.8% | 63.4% |
| 07 | Germany | 5.0% | 10.7% | 20.7% | 35.7% | 64.8% |
| 08 | Colombia | 4.6% | 9.4% | 18.1% | 33.2% | 56.2% |
| 09 | Belgium | 4.1% | 8.6% | 17.9% | 39.1% | 65.1% |
| 10 | Netherlands | 4.0% | 8.1% | 16.2% | 30.0% | 46.4% |
| 11 | Uruguay | 2.9% | 6.2% | 14.2% | 26.0% | 45.8% |
| 12 | Morocco | 2.6% | 5.8% | 13.7% | 27.2% | 47.6% |
| 13 | Croatia | 2.0% | 4.9% | 11.3% | 23.4% | 46.6% |
| 14 | Ecuador | 1.9% | 4.7% | 10.7% | 22.8% | 49.1% |
| 15 | Switzerland | 1.8% | 4.4% | 10.9% | 25.8% | 57.2% |
| 16 | Mexico | 1.0% | 3.0% | 7.7% | 20.3% | 48.6% |
| 17 | Japan | 1.0% | 2.6% | 6.5% | 14.8% | 29.0% |
| 18 | Norway | 0.9% | 2.5% | 6.5% | 15.8% | 36.4% |
| 19 | Senegal | 0.9% | 2.4% | 6.1% | 14.7% | 34.5% |
| 20 | Iran | 0.6% | 1.7% | 5.0% | 14.5% | 37.5% |
| 21 | United States | 0.5% | 1.7% | 5.0% | 15.0% | 37.8% |
| 22 | Austria | 0.5% | 1.5% | 4.8% | 11.8% | 26.7% |
| 23 | Australia | 0.4% | 1.5% | 4.6% | 12.4% | 32.5% |
| 24 | Sweden | 0.4% | 1.4% | 3.8% | 10.1% | 21.8% |
| 25 | Turkey | 0.4% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 11.4% | 31.4% |
| 26 | Paraguay | 0.4% | 1.3% | 4.2% | 11.9% | 31.3% |
| 27 | Ivory Coast | 0.4% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 11.5% | 32.4% |
| 28 | Canada | 0.4% | 1.4% | 4.6% | 15.4% | 43.6% |
| 29 | Egypt | 0.3% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 11.5% | 33.1% |
| 30 | South Korea | 0.3% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 11.3% | 31.7% |
| 31 | Czech Republic | 0.3% | 1.0% | 3.4% | 11.7% | 32.3% |
| 32 | Scotland | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 9.1% | 24.5% |
| 33 | Algeria | 0.3% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 8.0% | 21.2% |
| 34 | Tunisia | 0.2% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 6.3% | 15.5% |
| 35 | Uzbekistan | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 11.8% |
| 36 | DR Congo | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 3.3% | 10.7% |
| 37 | South Africa | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 4.6% | 15.6% |
| 38 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 5.3% | 20.0% |
| 39 | Panama | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 6.5% |
| 40 | Ghana | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 3.3% | 10.5% |
| 41 | Saudi Arabia | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.8% | 9.7% |
| 42 | Jordan | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 6.0% |
| 43 | Iraq | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 5.9% |
| 44 | Cape Verde | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 6.4% |
| 45 | Curaçao | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.6% |
| 46 | Haiti | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.7% |
| 47 | New Zealand | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 7.1% |
| 48 | Qatar | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 8.6% |
Two independent Poissons per match, log rates parameterised as log λ = μ + αscorer − δconceder + γ·home. Walk-forward fits a fresh model each quarter so the trajectories page shows how strengths drifted over a decade.
02·Fixtures has all 72 group-stage matches with the model's pre-match W/D/L and projected scoreline. Tap any row for the full score distribution.
Own the blind spots
A results-only Poisson model gets you to ~0.167 RPS — one credible step behind sharp markets at ~0.15. The gap is exactly the information markets price that we don't yet ingest. We list it here so a reader can discount the forecast in the right direction rather than guess where to mistrust it.
Our 6-year half-life still weights Argentina's 2022 World Cup and France's 2018 final at meaningful mass. The squads taking the field in 2026 will be substantially different. Expect us to over-rate recent tournament winners with significantly turned-over rosters.
The model doesn't know who starts, who's injured, or who's suspended. A first-choice goalkeeper ruled out is invisible to it — one reason the model and the market can diverge.
USA, Mexico, and Canada now get a partial home-advantage in knockout matches (~40 % of full HFA per Silver's PELE). The baseline tournament probabilities on this page also propagate parameter uncertainty — each Monte Carlo simulation draws from the 50 bootstrap replicates rather than using point estimates, which widens the long-tail probabilities correctly.
We don't blend in betting-market consensus. The Polymarket and Kalshi overlays show the divergence directly — when the model and a market disagree, we publish both and let you decide. Per-match closing-line scoring arrives once the tournament starts.