← Fixtures

Group F · NED

Netherlands

Strength

82.9

± 1.5

Attack

84.2

0–100

Defense

80.0

0–100

P(champion)

3.73%

8.4% reach final

Strength trajectory

83.1 → 83.1 · 0.0

2023-03-31 range 82.4–83.1 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

3.73%

to lift

Polymarket

4.8%

implied · -1.0pp

Kalshi

5.3%

implied · -1.6pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-06-13.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

49.6%

R16

46.4%

Quarter

30.5%

Semi

16.6%

Final

8.4%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Johan Cruijff ArenA

Amsterdam · 55,865 seats (WC avg 55,865; 0)

Age profile

mean 26.7 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 B. Verbruggen 23 yr

Brighton · Premier League

30 caps · 26 since 2024 (6.8999999999999995rtg)
23 M. Flekken 32 yr

Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga

17 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.2rtg)
13 R. Roefs 22 yr

Sunderland · Premier League

1 cap · 1 since 2024 (6.3rtg)

DEF Defenders · 8

4 V. van Dijk Top minutes 34 yr

Liverpool · Premier League

93 caps · 12G · 29 since 2024 (5G/0A · 7.366666666666666rtg) | club 6G · 7.28 rtg
22 D. Dumfries 29 yr

Inter · Serie A

68 caps · 10G · 22 since 2024 (5G/6A · 7.2rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.62 rtg
5 N. Aké 30 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

56 caps · 4G · 17 since 2024 (4G/2A · 7.1rtg)
2 J. Timber 24 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

27 caps · 8 since 2024 (6.99rtg) | club 3G · 5A · 6.92 rtg
15 M. van de Ven 24 yr

Tottenham · Premier League

22 caps · 1G · 20 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.033333333333333rtg) | club 4G · 1A · 6.73 rtg
12 M. Wieffer 26 yr

Brighton · Premier League

15 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.87rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 6.74 rtg
6 J. van Hecke 25 yr

Brighton · Premier League

13 caps · 13 since 2024 (7.702247191011236rtg) | club 3G · 3A · 7.26 rtg
25 J. Hato 19 yr

Chelsea · Premier League

8 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.66rtg)

MID Midfielders · 7

21 F. de Jong 28 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

58 caps · 1G · 13 since 2024 (1G/3A · 7.3rtg) | club 1G · 5A · 7.29 rtg
14 T. Reijnders 27 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

33 caps · 7G · 27 since 2024 (7G/2A · 6.5207547169811315rtg) | club 5G · 2A · 6.85 rtg
3 M. de Roon 34 yr

Atalanta · Serie A

38 caps · 1G · 2 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.3rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 7.04 rtg
20 T. Koopmeiners 27 yr

Juventus · Serie A

27 caps · 3G · 8 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.03rtg)
8 R. Gravenberch 23 yr

Liverpool · Premier League

30 caps · 1G · 17 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.1rtg) | club 5G · 3A · 7.06 rtg
26 Q. Timber 24 yr

Feyenoord · Eredivisie

11 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.8rtg) | club 2G · 4A · 6.91 rtg
16 G. Til 28 yr

PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie

7 caps · 1G · 2 since 2024 (1G/0A · 5.9rtg) | club 14G · 4A · 6.9 rtg

ATT Attackers · 8

10 M. Depay Top scorer 31 yr

Corinthians · Serie A

103 caps · 49G · 21 since 2024 (11G/6A · 7.51rtg) | club 6G · 3A · 6.97 rtg
11 C. Gakpo 26 yr

Liverpool · Premier League

52 caps · 21G · 30 since 2024 (12G/6A · 8.578947368421053rtg) | club 7G · 5A · 6.89 rtg
9 W. Weghorst 33 yr

Ajax · Eredivisie

48 caps · 13G · 21 since 2024 (5G/1A · 6.8rtg) | club 8G · 4A · 6.83 rtg
18 D. Malen 26 yr

AS Roma · Serie A

50 caps · 12G · 26 since 2024 (8G/4A · 6.054477611940298rtg) | club 14G · 2A · 7.23 rtg
17 N. Lang 26 yr

Galatasaray · Süper Lig

15 caps · 3G · 5 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.03rtg) | club 0G · 3A · 7.01 rtg
19 B. Brobbey 23 yr

Sunderland · Premier League

13 caps · 1G · 12 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.7rtg) | club 7G · 1A · 6.63 rtg
7 J. Kluivert 26 yr

Bournemouth · Premier League

12 caps · 10 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.79rtg) | club 2G · 6.54 rtg
24 C. Summerville 24 yr

West Ham · Premier League

3 caps · 3 since 2024 (7.166666666666667rtg) | club 5G · 2A · 7.05 rtg

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 2–1 vs UZB

L 0–1 vs ALG

D 1–1 vs ECU

W 2–1 vs NOR

W 4–0 vs Lithuania

D 1–1 @ Poland

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(NED win)	P(draw)
2026-06-14	H vs Japan (JPN)	45.9%	26.1%
2026-06-20	H vs Sweden (SWE)	52.8%	23.4%
2026-06-25	A vs Tunisia (TUN)	55.9%	25.8%

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

93.6/100

vs model strength +10.7

Top-5 leagues

86%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Premier League	England	15	65.2%	100
Serie A	Italy	4	13.6%	88
Eredivisie	Netherlands	3	10.1%	72
Bundesliga	Germany	1	3.9%	90
La Liga	Spain	1	3.0%	95
Serie A	Brazil	1	2.9%	70
Süper Lig	Turkey	1	1.3%	60

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-06-13 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs +10.7 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources