The forecast · all 48 teams
Championship odds for the full field.
The disciplined baseline the agent reasons from: a penalized Poisson attack/defence model fit on 47,000+ international matches, run through 20,000 simulated tournaments to turn single-match odds into title and stage odds. Beside each is the de-vigged champion price from Polymarket and Kalshi — shown side by side, never blended. A market cell is red where the model rates a team higher than the market and blue where the market rates it higher.
| # | Team | Champion | Final | Semi | R16 | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Spain | 14.2% | 22.8% | 34.8% | 69.9% | 16.5% | 15.7% |
| 02 | Brazil | 12.9% | 20.6% | 33.6% | 70.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% |
| 03 | Argentina | 11.8% | 19.3% | 31.5% | 63.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% |
| 04 | England | 9.3% | 15.9% | 26.8% | 67.0% | 9.4% | 9.9% |
| 05 | France | 6.5% | 12.8% | 23.4% | 63.4% | 15.7% | 15.9% |
| 06 | Portugal | 6.5% | 12.4% | 22.6% | 63.4% | 10.3% | 10.0% |
| 07 | Germany | 5.0% | 10.5% | 20.9% | 64.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% |
| 08 | Colombia | 4.6% | 9.2% | 18.0% | 56.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% |
| 09 | Belgium | 4.1% | 9.1% | 18.2% | 65.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% |
| 10 | Netherlands | 3.7% | 8.4% | 16.6% | 46.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% |
| 11 | Uruguay | 3.1% | 6.9% | 14.3% | 45.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 12 | Morocco | 2.5% | 6.1% | 13.6% | 47.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| 13 | Croatia | 2.2% | 5.1% | 11.4% | 46.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 14 | Ecuador | 2.0% | 4.6% | 10.7% | 49.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 15 | Switzerland | 1.7% | 4.4% | 10.8% | 57.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| 16 | Mexico | 1.1% | 3.1% | 8.1% | 48.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% |
| 17 | Norway | 1.0% | 2.6% | 6.6% | 36.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% |
| 18 | Japan | 1.0% | 2.6% | 6.7% | 29.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| 19 | Senegal | 0.8% | 2.3% | 6.0% | 34.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 20 | United States | 0.6% | 1.8% | 5.0% | 37.8% | 1.7% | 3.1% |
| 21 | Iran | 0.6% | 1.8% | 5.1% | 37.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 22 | Australia | 0.4% | 1.5% | 4.4% | 32.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 23 | Austria | 0.4% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 26.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 24 | Turkey | 0.4% | 1.4% | 4.0% | 31.4% | — | 0.8% |
| 25 | Paraguay | 0.4% | 1.4% | 4.0% | 31.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 26 | Ivory Coast | 0.4% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 32.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 27 | Sweden | 0.4% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 21.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 28 | Egypt | 0.4% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 33.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 29 | Canada | 0.3% | 1.4% | 4.6% | 43.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 30 | Czech Republic | 0.3% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 32.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 31 | Scotland | 0.3% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 24.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 32 | Algeria | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 21.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 33 | South Korea | 0.3% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 31.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 34 | Tunisia | 0.2% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 15.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 35 | Uzbekistan | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 11.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 36 | South Africa | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 15.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 37 | DR Congo | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 10.7% | — | 0.5% |
| 38 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 20.0% | — | 0.5% |
| 39 | Ghana | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 10.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 40 | Iraq | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 5.9% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 41 | Saudi Arabia | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 9.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 42 | Panama | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 6.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 43 | Qatar | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 8.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 44 | Cape Verde | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 6.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 45 | Curaçao | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 46 | New Zealand | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 7.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 47 | Haiti | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 48 | Jordan | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 6.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Markets ·
Polymarket ↗ 2026-06-13 · Kalshi ↗ 2026-06-13
Where the model and market disagree →