Group D · Matchday 3 · 2026-06-13
Australia vs Turkey
Vancouver, Canada · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–0
12.2%
35.4%
AUS win
27.5%
Draw
37.1%
TUR win
Top scorelines
- 0–0 12.2%
- 0–1 11.7%
- 1–0 11.4%
- 1–1 11.0%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — AUS
GF / GA last 10: 14 / 10
Last 5 — TUR
GF / GA last 10: 21 / 14
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2004-05-24 Australia 0–1 Turkey
- 2004-05-21 Australia 1–3 Turkey
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
12.2
11.7
6.8
3.0
1.2
0.4
0.1
1
11.4
11.0
6.3
2.8
1.1
0.4
0.1
2
6.4
6.2
3.6
1.6
0.6
0.2
0.1
3
2.8
2.7
1.6
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
1.0
1.0
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = AUS goals; columns = TUR goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.15
AUS
1.19
TUR
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.