Group E · Matchday 15 · 2026-06-25
Curaçao vs Ivory Coast
Philadelphia, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–1
16.8%
11.6%
CUW win
22.5%
Draw
65.8%
CIV win
Top scorelines
- 0–1 16.8%
- 0–2 13.7%
- 0–0 12.3%
- 0–3 8.7%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — CUW
GF / GA last 10: 16 / 16
Last 5 — CIV
GF / GA last 10: 20 / 7
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
12.3
16.8
13.7
8.7
4.8
2.4
1.1
1
5.9
8.0
6.6
4.2
2.3
1.1
0.5
2
1.7
2.3
1.9
1.2
0.7
0.3
0.1
3
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = CUW goals; columns = CIV goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.53
CUW
1.88
CIV
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.