Group B · Matchday 14 · 2026-06-24
Canada vs Switzerland
Vancouver, Canada
Most likely scoreline
0–1
11.3%
29.9%
CAN win
25.2%
Draw
44.8%
SUI win
Top scorelines
- 0–1 11.3%
- 1–1 10.4%
- 0–0 9.9%
- 1–0 9.0%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — CAN
GF / GA last 10: 11 / 4
Last 5 — SUI
GF / GA last 10: 25 / 7
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2002-05-15 Switzerland 1–3 Canada
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9.9
11.3
7.8
4.2
1.9
0.8
0.3
1
9.0
10.4
7.1
3.8
1.8
0.7
0.3
2
5.0
5.7
3.9
2.1
1.0
0.4
0.2
3
2.1
2.4
1.7
0.9
0.4
0.2
0.1
4
0.8
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
6
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = CAN goals; columns = SUI goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.12
CAN
1.49
SUI
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.