Group G · Matchday 16 · 2026-06-26
Egypt vs Iran
Seattle, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–0
19.2%
30.9%
EGY win
32.9%
Draw
36.2%
IRN win
Top scorelines
- 0–0 19.2%
- 0–1 15.3%
- 1–0 13.9%
- 1–1 11.1%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — EGY
GF / GA last 10: 14 / 5
Last 5 — IRN
GF / GA last 10: 17 / 8
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2000-06-07 Iran 1–1 Egypt
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
19.2
15.3
7.3
2.7
0.9
0.3
0.1
1
13.9
11.1
5.3
2.0
0.6
0.2
0.0
2
6.0
4.8
2.3
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
3
2.0
1.6
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
0.6
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = EGY goals; columns = IRN goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.84
EGY
0.95
IRN
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.