Group F · Matchday 4 · 2026-06-14
Netherlands vs Japan
Arlington, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
12.5%
46.4%
NED win
26.0%
Draw
27.5%
JPN win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 12.5%
- 0–0 11.0%
- 1–1 10.5%
- 0–1 9.3%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — NED
GF / GA last 10: 30 / 6
Last 5 — JPN
GF / GA last 10: 19 / 6
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2013-11-16 Netherlands 2–2 Japan
- 2010-06-19 Netherlands 1–0 Japan
- 2009-09-05 Netherlands 3–0 Japan
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11.0
9.3
4.7
1.8
0.6
0.2
0.1
1
12.5
10.5
5.3
2.1
0.7
0.2
0.1
2
8.5
7.1
3.6
1.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
3
4.5
3.8
1.9
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
2.0
1.7
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.8
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = NED goals; columns = JPN goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.47
NED
1.01
JPN
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.