Group A · Matchday 14 · 2026-06-24
South Africa vs South Korea
Guadalupe, Mexico · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–0
16.5%
24.8%
RSA win
30.2%
Draw
45.0%
KOR win
Top scorelines
- 0–0 16.5%
- 0–1 16.0%
- 1–0 11.1%
- 1–1 10.8%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — RSA
GF / GA last 10: 14 / 10
Last 5 — KOR
GF / GA last 10: 18 / 12
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
16.5
16.0
9.4
4.3
1.7
0.6
0.2
1
11.1
10.8
6.3
2.9
1.1
0.4
0.1
2
4.5
4.3
2.5
1.2
0.4
0.2
0.1
3
1.4
1.4
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = RSA goals; columns = KOR goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.78
RSA
1.21
KOR
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.