Group H · Matchday 16 · 2026-06-26
Uruguay vs Spain
Zapopan, Mexico · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–1
15.6%
22.8%
URU win
28.3%
Draw
48.9%
ESP win
Top scorelines
- 0–1 15.6%
- 0–0 14.7%
- 1–1 10.5%
- 0–2 10.0%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — URU
GF / GA last 10: 10 / 9
Last 5 — ESP
GF / GA last 10: 31 / 8
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2013-06-16 Spain 2–1 Uruguay
- 2013-02-06 Spain 3–1 Uruguay
- 2005-08-17 Spain 2–0 Uruguay
- 1995-01-18 Spain 2–2 Uruguay
- 1991-09-04 Spain 2–1 Uruguay
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
14.7
15.6
10.0
5.0
2.1
0.8
0.3
1
9.8
10.5
6.7
3.3
1.4
0.6
0.2
2
4.0
4.2
2.7
1.3
0.6
0.2
0.1
3
1.2
1.3
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = URU goals; columns = ESP goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.78
URU
1.36
ESP
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.