Group E · Matchday 4 · 2026-06-14
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador
Philadelphia, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–0
20.0%
24.2%
CIV win
32.9%
Draw
42.9%
ECU win
Top scorelines
- 0–0 20.0%
- 0–1 17.6%
- 1–0 12.1%
- 1–1 10.6%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — CIV
GF / GA last 10: 20 / 7
Last 5 — ECU
GF / GA last 10: 9 / 5
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
20.0
17.6
9.3
3.8
1.3
0.4
0.1
1
12.1
10.6
5.6
2.3
0.8
0.3
0.1
2
4.4
3.8
2.0
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
3
1.2
1.1
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = CIV goals; columns = ECU goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.69
CIV
1.07
ECU
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.