Group J · Matchday 12 · 2026-06-22
Argentina vs Austria
Arlington, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
16.3%
59.4%
ARG win
24.9%
Draw
15.6%
AUT win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 16.3%
- 0–0 13.0%
- 2–0 12.3%
- 1–1 9.2%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — ARG
GF / GA last 10: 25 / 4
Last 5 — AUT
GF / GA last 10: 27 / 4
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 1990-05-03 Austria 1–1 Argentina
- 1980-05-21 Austria 1–5 Argentina
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
13.0
7.3
2.5
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
16.3
9.2
3.1
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
2
12.3
6.9
2.3
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
3
7.2
4.0
1.4
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
3.6
2.0
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
1.6
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = ARG goals; columns = AUT goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.68
ARG
0.63
AUT
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.