Group K · Matchday 13 · 2026-06-23
Colombia vs DR Congo
Zapopan, Mexico · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
17.9%
61.1%
COL win
25.3%
Draw
13.5%
COD win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 17.9%
- 0–0 14.5%
- 2–0 13.3%
- 1–1 8.7%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — COL
GF / GA last 10: 24 / 11
Last 5 — COD
GF / GA last 10: 12 / 3
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
14.5
7.0
2.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
17.9
8.7
2.5
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
2
13.3
6.5
1.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
3
7.7
3.7
1.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
3.8
1.8
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
1.7
0.8
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = COL goals; columns = COD goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.65
COL
0.54
COD
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.