Group A · Matchday 14 · 2026-06-24
Mexico vs Czech Republic
Mexico City, Mexico
Most likely scoreline
1–0
13.0%
48.7%
MEX win
25.8%
Draw
25.4%
CZE win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 13.0%
- 0–0 11.2%
- 1–1 10.4%
- 2–0 9.0%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — MEX
GF / GA last 10: 12 / 4
Last 5 — CZE
GF / GA last 10: 18 / 13
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2000-02-08 Mexico 1–2 Czech Republic
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11.2
8.9
4.3
1.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
1
13.0
10.4
5.0
1.9
0.6
0.2
0.0
2
9.0
7.2
3.5
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
3
4.9
3.9
1.9
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
2.3
1.8
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.9
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = MEX goals; columns = CZE goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.51
MEX
0.95
CZE
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.