Group A · Matchday 8 · 2026-06-18
Czech Republic vs South Africa
Atlanta, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
15.2%
45.6%
CZE win
29.1%
Draw
25.3%
RSA win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 15.2%
- 0–0 15.0%
- 1–1 10.8%
- 0–1 10.6%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — CZE
GF / GA last 10: 18 / 13
Last 5 — RSA
GF / GA last 10: 14 / 10
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 1997-12-13 South Africa 2–2 Czech Republic
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
15.0
10.6
4.5
1.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
1
15.2
10.8
4.6
1.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
2
9.2
6.5
2.8
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
3
4.4
3.1
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
1.8
1.3
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.6
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = CZE goals; columns = RSA goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.27
CZE
0.83
RSA
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.