Group E · Matchday 4 · 2026-06-14
Germany vs Curaçao
Houston, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
2–0
11.3%
82.0%
GER win
9.8%
Draw
4.1%
CUW win
Top scorelines
- 2–0 11.3%
- 3–0 10.9%
- 4–0 9.1%
- 1–0 9.1%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — GER
GF / GA last 10: 26 / 9
Last 5 — CUW
GF / GA last 10: 16 / 16
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4.4
1.9
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
9.1
3.9
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
2
11.3
4.8
1.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
10.9
4.7
1.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
9.1
3.9
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
6.8
2.9
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
4.7
2.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = GER goals; columns = CUW goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
3.56
GER
0.47
CUW
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.