Group D · Matchday 9 · 2026-06-19
Turkey vs Paraguay
Santa Clara, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–0
14.6%
36.3%
TUR win
29.4%
Draw
34.3%
PAR win
Top scorelines
- 0–0 14.6%
- 1–0 13.0%
- 0–1 12.5%
- 1–1 11.2%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — TUR
GF / GA last 10: 21 / 14
Last 5 — PAR
GF / GA last 10: 10 / 10
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
14.6
12.5
6.5
2.6
0.9
0.3
0.1
1
13.0
11.2
5.8
2.3
0.8
0.2
0.1
2
6.9
6.0
3.1
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
3
2.9
2.5
1.3
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
1.0
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = TUR goals; columns = PAR goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.09
TUR
1.04
PAR
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.