Group C · Matchday 3 · 2026-06-13
Brazil vs Morocco
East Rutherford, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–0
19.2%
46.6%
BRA win
31.8%
Draw
21.6%
MAR win
Top scorelines
- 0–0 19.2%
- 1–0 18.1%
- 0–1 11.0%
- 1–1 10.3%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — BRA
GF / GA last 10: 24 / 10
Last 5 — MAR
GF / GA last 10: 20 / 3
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2023-03-25 Morocco 2–1 Brazil
- 1998-06-16 Brazil 3–0 Morocco
- 1997-10-09 Brazil 2–0 Morocco
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
19.2
11.0
3.8
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
18.1
10.3
3.5
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
2
10.2
5.8
2.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
3
4.5
2.6
0.9
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
1.7
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = BRA goals; columns = MAR goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.16
BRA
0.65
MAR
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.