Group C · Matchday 14 · 2026-06-24
Morocco vs Haiti
Atlanta, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
16.2%
72.7%
MAR win
18.9%
Draw
7.9%
HAI win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 16.2%
- 2–0 14.8%
- 0–0 10.6%
- 3–0 10.5%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — MAR
GF / GA last 10: 20 / 3
Last 5 — HAI
GF / GA last 10: 12 / 11
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10.6
4.3
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
16.2
6.6
1.6
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
2
14.8
6.0
1.5
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
10.5
4.3
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
6.4
2.6
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
3.5
1.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
1.8
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = MAR goals; columns = HAI goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
2.19
MAR
0.44
HAI
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.