Group D · Matchday 9 · 2026-06-19
United States vs Australia
Seattle, United States
Most likely scoreline
1–0
12.2%
40.6%
USA win
27.2%
Draw
32.1%
AUS win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 12.2%
- 0–0 11.9%
- 1–1 10.9%
- 0–1 10.6%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — USA
GF / GA last 10: 18 / 17
Last 5 — AUS
GF / GA last 10: 14 / 10
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2025-10-14 United States 2–1 Australia
- 2010-06-05 Australia 1–3 United States
- 1998-11-06 United States 0–0 Australia
- 1992-06-13 United States 0–1 Australia
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11.9
10.6
5.7
2.4
0.8
0.3
0.1
1
12.2
10.9
5.8
2.4
0.9
0.3
0.1
2
7.5
6.7
3.6
1.5
0.5
0.2
0.1
3
3.6
3.2
1.7
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
1.5
1.3
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = USA goals; columns = AUS goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.28
USA
1.09
AUS
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.