Group I · Matchday 16 · 2026-06-26
Norway vs France
Foxborough, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–1
13.5%
22.3%
NOR win
25.2%
Draw
52.4%
FRA win
Top scorelines
- 0–1 13.5%
- 0–0 11.1%
- 1–1 10.0%
- 0–2 9.8%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — NOR
GF / GA last 10: 31 / 7
Last 5 — FRA
GF / GA last 10: 27 / 11
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2014-05-27 France 4–0 Norway
- 2010-08-11 Norway 2–1 France
- 1998-02-25 France 3–3 Norway
- 1995-07-22 Norway 0–0 France
- 1989-09-05 Norway 1–1 France
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11.1
13.5
9.8
5.6
2.7
1.2
0.5
1
8.3
10.0
7.3
4.1
2.0
0.9
0.4
2
3.7
4.5
3.3
1.9
0.9
0.4
0.2
3
1.3
1.6
1.1
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.1
4
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = NOR goals; columns = FRA goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.88
NOR
1.61
FRA
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.