Group B · Matchday 8 · 2026-06-18
Canada vs Qatar
Vancouver, Canada
Most likely scoreline
1–0
11.1%
63.0%
CAN win
19.9%
Draw
16.6%
QAT win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 11.1%
- 2–0 10.1%
- 1–1 8.3%
- 2–1 7.5%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — CAN
GF / GA last 10: 11 / 4
Last 5 — QAT
GF / GA last 10: 9 / 17
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2022-09-23 Canada 2–0 Qatar
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7.3
5.4
2.4
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
11.1
8.3
3.7
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
2
10.1
7.5
3.4
1.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
3
7.2
5.3
2.4
0.8
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
4.4
3.2
1.4
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
2.4
1.8
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
6
1.2
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = CAN goals; columns = QAT goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
2.18
CAN
0.87
QAT
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.