Group A · Matchday 1 · 2026-06-11
Mexico vs South Africa
Mexico City, Mexico
Most likely scoreline
1–0
15.7%
58.0%
MEX win
25.0%
Draw
16.9%
RSA win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 15.7%
- 0–0 12.6%
- 2–0 11.7%
- 1–1 9.4%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — MEX
GF / GA last 10: 12 / 4
Last 5 — RSA
GF / GA last 10: 14 / 10
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2010-06-11 South Africa 1–1 Mexico
- 2005-07-08 South Africa 2–1 Mexico
- 2000-06-07 Mexico 4–2 South Africa
- 1993-10-06 Mexico 4–0 South Africa
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
12.6
7.5
2.7
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
15.7
9.4
3.4
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
2
11.7
7.0
2.5
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
3
6.8
4.1
1.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
3.4
2.0
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
1.5
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = MEX goals; columns = RSA goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.66
MEX
0.68
RSA
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.