Group H · Matchday 11 · 2026-06-21
Uruguay vs Cape Verde
Miami Gardens, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
18.7%
64.2%
URU win
24.4%
Draw
11.3%
CPV win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 18.7%
- 0–0 14.7%
- 2–0 14.3%
- 3–0 8.5%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — URU
GF / GA last 10: 10 / 9
Last 5 — CPV
GF / GA last 10: 17 / 10
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
14.7
6.3
1.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
18.7
8.0
2.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
2
14.3
6.1
1.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
3
8.5
3.6
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
4.3
1.9
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
2.0
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = URU goals; columns = CPV goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.71
URU
0.47
CPV
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.