Group G · Matchday 5 · 2026-06-15
Iran vs New Zealand
Inglewood, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
18.8%
55.6%
IRN win
28.5%
Draw
15.9%
NZL win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 18.8%
- 0–0 17.1%
- 2–0 12.4%
- 1–1 9.3%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — IRN
GF / GA last 10: 17 / 8
Last 5 — NZL
GF / GA last 10: 9 / 15
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2003-10-12 Iran 3–0 New Zealand
- 1973-08-12 New Zealand 0–0 Iran
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
17.1
8.5
2.5
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
18.8
9.3
2.8
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
2
12.4
6.2
1.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
3
6.4
3.2
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
2.8
1.4
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
1.1
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = IRN goals; columns = NZL goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.41
IRN
0.55
NZL
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.