Group L · Matchday 17 · 2026-06-27
Panama vs England
East Rutherford, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–1
14.9%
7.6%
PAN win
17.5%
Draw
74.2%
ENG win
Top scorelines
- 0–1 14.9%
- 0–2 14.3%
- 0–3 10.7%
- 0–0 9.4%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — PAN
GF / GA last 10: 15 / 14
Last 5 — ENG
GF / GA last 10: 22 / 5
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2018-06-24 England 6–1 Panama
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9.4
14.9
14.3
10.7
6.8
3.9
2.1
1
4.0
6.3
6.1
4.5
2.9
1.7
0.9
2
1.0
1.6
1.5
1.2
0.7
0.4
0.2
3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = PAN goals; columns = ENG goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.46
PAN
2.35
ENG
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.