Group K · Matchday 7 · 2026-06-17
Portugal vs DR Congo
Houston, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
16.2%
65.7%
POR win
22.2%
Draw
11.9%
COD win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 16.2%
- 2–0 13.4%
- 0–0 11.8%
- 3–0 8.7%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — POR
GF / GA last 10: 26 / 10
Last 5 — COD
GF / GA last 10: 12 / 3
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11.8
5.9
1.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
16.2
8.1
2.4
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
2
13.4
6.7
2.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
3
8.7
4.3
1.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
4.8
2.4
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
2.4
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
1.1
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = POR goals; columns = COD goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.91
POR
0.55
COD
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.