Group A · Matchday 8 · 2026-06-18
Mexico vs South Korea
Zapopan, Mexico
Most likely scoreline
1–0
13.8%
47.6%
MEX win
26.9%
Draw
25.4%
KOR win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 13.8%
- 0–0 12.5%
- 1–1 10.6%
- 0–1 9.6%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — MEX
GF / GA last 10: 12 / 4
Last 5 — KOR
GF / GA last 10: 18 / 12
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2025-09-09 Mexico 2–2 South Korea
- 2020-11-14 Mexico 3–2 South Korea
- 2018-06-23 South Korea 1–2 Mexico
- 2014-01-29 Mexico 4–0 South Korea
- 2006-02-15 Mexico 0–1 South Korea
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
12.5
9.6
4.4
1.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
1
13.8
10.6
4.9
1.7
0.5
0.1
0.0
2
9.1
7.0
3.2
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
3
4.7
3.6
1.7
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
2.1
1.6
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.8
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = MEX goals; columns = KOR goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.42
MEX
0.91
KOR
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.