Group C · Matchday 9 · 2026-06-19
Scotland vs Morocco
Foxborough, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–0
18.4%
21.3%
SCO win
31.1%
Draw
47.6%
MAR win
Top scorelines
- 0–0 18.4%
- 0–1 17.8%
- 1–0 10.7%
- 0–2 10.4%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — SCO
GF / GA last 10: 21 / 10
Last 5 — MAR
GF / GA last 10: 20 / 3
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 1998-06-23 Scotland 0–3 Morocco
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
18.4
17.8
10.4
4.7
1.8
0.6
0.2
1
10.7
10.3
6.0
2.7
1.1
0.4
0.1
2
3.7
3.6
2.1
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
3
1.0
1.0
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = SCO goals; columns = MAR goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.65
SCO
1.2
MAR
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.