Group K · Matchday 17 · 2026-06-27
Colombia vs Portugal
Miami Gardens, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–0
13.1%
33.0%
COL win
28.2%
Draw
38.8%
POR win
Top scorelines
- 0–0 13.1%
- 0–1 12.6%
- 1–0 11.5%
- 1–1 11.0%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — COL
GF / GA last 10: 24 / 11
Last 5 — POR
GF / GA last 10: 26 / 10
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
13.1
12.6
7.3
3.3
1.3
0.4
0.1
1
11.5
11.0
6.4
2.9
1.1
0.4
0.1
2
6.0
5.8
3.3
1.5
0.6
0.2
0.1
3
2.5
2.4
1.4
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = COL goals; columns = POR goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.06
COL
1.19
POR
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.