Group I · Matchday 12 · 2026-06-22
Norway vs Senegal
East Rutherford, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–0
13.9%
37.3%
NOR win
28.9%
Draw
33.8%
SEN win
Top scorelines
- 0–0 13.9%
- 1–0 12.8%
- 0–1 12.1%
- 1–1 11.1%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — NOR
GF / GA last 10: 31 / 7
Last 5 — SEN
GF / GA last 10: 19 / 9
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2006-03-01 Senegal 2–1 Norway
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
13.9
12.1
6.3
2.5
0.9
0.3
0.1
1
12.8
11.1
5.8
2.3
0.8
0.3
0.1
2
7.1
6.1
3.2
1.3
0.5
0.1
0.0
3
3.1
2.6
1.4
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
1.1
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = NOR goals; columns = SEN goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.13
NOR
1.05
SEN
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.