Group K · Matchday 7 · 2026-06-17
Uzbekistan vs Colombia
Mexico City, Mexico · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–1
18.1%
14.2%
UZB win
26.2%
Draw
59.5%
COL win
Top scorelines
- 0–1 18.1%
- 0–0 15.1%
- 0–2 13.1%
- 1–1 8.9%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — UZB
GF / GA last 10: 13 / 7
Last 5 — COL
GF / GA last 10: 24 / 11
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
15.1
18.1
13.1
7.3
3.5
1.5
0.6
1
7.4
8.9
6.4
3.6
1.7
0.7
0.3
2
2.2
2.6
1.9
1.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
3
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = UZB goals; columns = COL goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.54
UZB
1.58
COL
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.