Group C · Matchday 9 · 2026-06-19
Brazil vs Haiti
Philadelphia, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
2–0
12.0%
83.1%
BRA win
9.3%
Draw
3.3%
HAI win
Top scorelines
- 2–0 12.0%
- 3–0 11.6%
- 4–0 9.7%
- 1–0 9.6%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — BRA
GF / GA last 10: 24 / 10
Last 5 — HAI
GF / GA last 10: 12 / 11
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2016-06-08 Brazil 7–1 Haiti
- 2004-08-18 Haiti 0–6 Brazil
- 1974-04-21 Brazil 4–0 Haiti
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4.6
1.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
9.6
3.5
0.8
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
2
12.0
4.4
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
11.6
4.3
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
9.7
3.6
0.8
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
7.3
2.7
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
5.0
1.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = BRA goals; columns = HAI goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
3.57
BRA
0.4
HAI
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.