Group B · Matchday 3 · 2026-06-13
Qatar vs Switzerland
Santa Clara, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–1
12.0%
12.1%
QAT win
18.4%
Draw
68.9%
SUI win
Top scorelines
- 0–1 12.0%
- 0–2 11.5%
- 0–3 8.6%
- 0–0 7.6%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — QAT
GF / GA last 10: 9 / 17
Last 5 — SUI
GF / GA last 10: 25 / 7
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2018-11-14 Switzerland 0–1 Qatar
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7.6
12.0
11.5
8.6
5.5
3.2
1.7
1
4.7
7.5
7.1
5.3
3.4
2.0
1.0
2
1.7
2.8
2.7
2.0
1.3
0.7
0.4
3
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
4
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = QAT goals; columns = SUI goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.71
QAT
2.35
SUI
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.