Group H · Matchday 11 · 2026-06-21
Spain vs Saudi Arabia
Atlanta, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
15.3%
75.5%
ESP win
17.0%
Draw
6.8%
KSA win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 15.3%
- 2–0 14.8%
- 3–0 11.1%
- 0–0 9.5%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — ESP
GF / GA last 10: 31 / 8
Last 5 — KSA
GF / GA last 10: 10 / 15
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2012-09-07 Spain 5–0 Saudi Arabia
- 2010-05-29 Spain 3–2 Saudi Arabia
- 2006-06-23 Saudi Arabia 0–1 Spain
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9.5
3.7
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
15.3
6.0
1.4
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
2
14.8
5.8
1.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
11.1
4.4
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
7.2
2.8
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
4.2
1.6
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
2.3
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = ESP goals; columns = KSA goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
2.39
ESP
0.42
KSA
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.