Group L · Matchday 13 · 2026-06-23
Panama vs Croatia
Toronto, Canada · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
0–1
14.5%
13.8%
PAN win
21.8%
Draw
64.1%
CRO win
Top scorelines
- 0–1 14.5%
- 0–2 12.3%
- 0–0 10.3%
- 1–1 8.4%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — PAN
GF / GA last 10: 15 / 14
Last 5 — CRO
GF / GA last 10: 29 / 8
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10.3
14.5
12.3
8.1
4.5
2.3
1.1
1
6.0
8.4
7.1
4.7
2.6
1.3
0.6
2
2.1
2.9
2.5
1.6
0.9
0.5
0.2
3
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
4
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = PAN goals; columns = CRO goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
0.66
PAN
1.96
CRO
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.