Group K · Matchday 13 · 2026-06-23
Portugal vs Uzbekistan
Houston, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
16.5%
64.1%
POR win
23.1%
Draw
12.6%
UZB win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 16.5%
- 2–0 13.3%
- 0–0 12.4%
- 1–1 8.3%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — POR
GF / GA last 10: 26 / 10
Last 5 — UZB
GF / GA last 10: 13 / 7
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
12.4
6.2
1.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
16.5
8.3
2.5
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
2
13.3
6.7
2.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
3
8.3
4.2
1.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
4.5
2.3
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
2.2
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
1.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = POR goals; columns = UZB goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.83
POR
0.56
UZB
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.