Group E · Matchday 10 · 2026-06-20
Germany vs Ivory Coast
Toronto, Canada · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
13.3%
56.9%
GER win
23.6%
Draw
19.4%
CIV win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 13.3%
- 2–0 10.5%
- 0–0 10.2%
- 1–1 9.5%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — GER
GF / GA last 10: 26 / 9
Last 5 — CIV
GF / GA last 10: 20 / 7
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2009-11-18 Germany 2–2 Ivory Coast
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10.2
7.2
3.1
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
13.3
9.5
4.0
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
2
10.5
7.4
3.2
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
3
6.4
4.5
1.9
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
4
3.4
2.4
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
1.6
1.1
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = GER goals; columns = CIV goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.78
GER
0.83
CIV
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.