Group G · Matchday 11 · 2026-06-21
Belgium vs Iran
Inglewood, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
14.1%
51.2%
BEL win
26.1%
Draw
22.6%
IRN win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 14.1%
- 0–0 12.1%
- 1–1 10.2%
- 2–0 9.9%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — BEL
GF / GA last 10: 35 / 10
Last 5 — IRN
GF / GA last 10: 17 / 8
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
12.1
8.8
3.8
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
1
14.1
10.2
4.4
1.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
2
9.9
7.2
3.1
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
3
5.4
3.9
1.7
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
4
2.5
1.8
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
1.1
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = BEL goals; columns = IRN goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.52
BEL
0.85
IRN
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.