Group I · Matchday 12 · 2026-06-22
France vs Iraq
Philadelphia, United States · neutral venue
Most likely scoreline
1–0
16.8%
70.9%
FRA win
20.1%
Draw
8.6%
IRQ win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 16.8%
- 2–0 14.8%
- 0–0 11.5%
- 3–0 10.1%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — FRA
GF / GA last 10: 27 / 11
Last 5 — IRQ
GF / GA last 10: 11 / 7
Head-to-head (last 5)
No prior meetings in the dataset.
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11.5
4.7
1.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
1
16.8
6.9
1.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
2
14.8
6.1
1.5
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
10.1
4.2
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
5.9
2.4
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
3.1
1.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
1.5
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = FRA goals; columns = IRQ goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
2.08
FRA
0.45
IRQ
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.